Two population-related news stories published a day apart captured my attention earlier this week because of their common underlying themes.
The first, an article published by the UK-based Times Higher Education revealed what it called the ‘enrolment cliff’ in the United States, which the publication described as “a more fundamental threat” to U.S. colleges and universities than the policy changes imposed by President Trump on educational institutions.
The expected drop in population numbers, which is feared to cause more struggles for smaller institutions of higher education is caused by reduced birth rates in recent years.
It’s worse, the publication asserted, than the warning of President Trump administration’s on federal funding cuts over DEI, or diversity, equity and inclusion, if such programs continue in tertiary institutions.
THE, in the article published on Feb. 25, recounted the alarm caused by the U.S. president’s pronouncement covering the higher education sector through unprecedented action, including the issuance of executive orders, “affecting research, a crackdown on DEI initiatives and a campaign to close the Department of Education.”
The feared ‘enrolment cliff’ is reflected in falling number of students as a result of lower birth rates which have begun to take effect.
THE reiterated that the decline in student numbers “represents a far more fundamental and long term threat than President Trump.”
The decline in the number of college-age students, the publication continued, “is not a temporary policy issue but is a demographic reality that institutions must confront over the next several decades.”
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A news article, from another UK-based media, The Independent, harped a similar tune but this time on developments in the educational sector in South Korea.
The report, posted on Feb. 26, indicated that almost 50 schools across the country will shut down in 2025.
The reason? The current worsening birth rate crisis across the country.
South Korea has been reported as among the countries with the lowest birth rate in the world – .78 birth per woman, according to available figures.
The rate is far lower with the 1.66 and 1.26 figures in the United States and Japan, respectively, which have among the low birth rates in the world.
Unlike in the United States where the reduced rate of students are beginning to be felt in the higher education level, the report said that in Korea, the numbers are low already in the basic education level – with 38 lower-level grade schools expected to shut down. In addition, eight middle schools and three high schools are closing its doors this year.
The closures will take place in 17 cities and provinces.
A great majority, or 88% of the schools, are based in rural areas, where population has been greatly affected by in-migration to urban centers.
The report, quoting The Korea Herald, further said that the number of schools that have closed down have increased steadily since 2023.
The birth rate in the country has declined with figures showing that almost 20% of the country’s over 55 million people now belong to the 65 years-and-above category.
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To some extent, the trend in South Korea and the United States may have some impact in the Philippines educational system although such similar phenomenon may be felt in our country perhaps after a decade or two later.
These effects may include:
– Reduced job opportunities for Filipino teachers, including from Negros Occidental, who may be hired to teach in the U.S. public school system.
The past five or more years have seen the exodus of many Filipino teachers who have sought greener pastures by teaching in the U.S. basic education system.
– A possible slump in the next few years in the number of South Korean university students who venture to the Philippines to acquire English language education before they embark on further university studies or move ahead in their professional careers.
Negros-based universities have been a popular choice for Koreans enrolled in English language education with local institutions forging ties with their Korean counterparts to strengthen their language education-related ties.
These population-related concerns deserve the attention of planners in the educational sector so that the system can address the issues effectively and appropriately when the problem reaches our shores.
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It may take a decade or two from now, when Philippine education may reach its peak. At least, our educational system managers and leaders can learn from these two countries so that the ill effects of reduced higher education population can be cushioned to bring about minimal disruptions.
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In a multitude of people is a king’s glory, but in the dearth of people is a prince’s ruin. (Proverbs 14:28) | NWI
