The ‘New Normal’ Flood Fallacy

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The floods recurring across North, Central and Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Panay, Sarangani, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and other parts of the Philippines should compel us to question the increasingly convenient phrase, “the new normal.”

It is unwise to accept widespread and repeated flooding simply as an unavoidable consequence of what many attribute to climate change. Doing so risks transforming a warning into an excuse — and an environmental challenge into a justification for government inaction.

As a former meteorology professor, I would prefer to describe the present situation as a severe weather aberration rather than automatically labeling it as climate change. Climate variability and long-term changes in weather patterns are legitimate subjects for scientific investigation, but the immediate causes of flooding must also be examined with rigor.

Unusually persistent monsoon rainfall is certainly a major factor, but rainfall alone cannot fully explain why communities are repeatedly inundated despite billions of pesos allocated to flood-control infrastructure.

For approximately two weeks, the country has experienced prolonged rainfall associated with the southwest monsoon, or ‘habagat’, repeatedly enhanced by tropical cyclones and other weather systems. PAGASA reported that rainfall from Aug. 6 to 10 exceeded 50% of the monthly average in several areas, while Baguio received more than a month’s worth of rain.

By Aug. 21, authorities reported 29 fatalities following two weeks of continuous rains associated with the enhanced Habagat and tropical cyclones Luis and Maymay.

These figures are alarming. However, a critical fallacy must be avoided: when flooding becomes frequent, it should not be automatically characterized as the “new normal.” Such a phrase may serve as a convenient shield against accountability. It risks obscuring deficiencies in urban planning, drainage design, river management, infrastructure maintenance, watershed protection, and environmental governance.

The Philippines has invested substantial public resources in flood-control projects — dikes, drainage systems, pumping stations, floodways, river walls, retention facilities, and related infrastructure. Yet many communities continue to experience severe flooding after relatively prolonged rainfall. This raises a fundamental question: “Are our flood-control projects properly designed, appropriately located, adequately maintained, and effectively delivering the protection which taxpayers have paid for?”

The controversy surrounding flood-control projects has also raised serious concerns regarding irregularities in public works and infrastructure governance. A University of the Philippines policy analysis, for instance, has described the issue as revealing entrenched problems involving corruption and governance failures. Such allegations must be investigated thoroughly, impartially, and based on evidence. Accountability should be assigned to those proven responsible, without generalizing blame to all government officials, engineers, or contractors.

However, government responsibility represents only one dimension of the problem. Citizen behavior is likewise significant. Improper disposal of waste in streets, canals, creeks, and rivers ultimately contributes to flooding. Plastic bags, bottles, food containers, household refuse, and other debris obstruct drainage systems precisely when they are most needed.

During the current rains, authorities have reported substantial volumes of garbage clogging waterways. The Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, for example, removed accumulated waste from a single drainage channel in Parañaque.

Improper waste disposal is, therefore, not merely an environmental issue; it directly diminishes drainage capacity and can convert heavy rainfall into localized flooding. No level of engineering sophistication can fully offset communities that continue to treat waterways as disposal sites.

Flooding is consequently a shared governance concern.  The government must ensure honest, science-based, and properly maintained infrastructure. Engineers and contractors must adhere strictly to approved specifications. Public officials must be held accountable for corruption, negligence, and poor implementation. Local governments must enforce zoning, drainage, and environmental regulations.

Communities, in turn, must fulfill their responsibility to maintain clean waterways and dispose of waste properly.

Voters also hold significant influence. Vote-buying creates a problematic political exchange: a voter receives a small immediate benefit in return for entrusting public officials with control over substantial public resources.

Nevertheless, citizens should not be collectively blamed for systemic corruption. Poverty, political pressure, and limited choices can shape electoral behavior. The long-term solution lies in strengthening transparency, accountability, civic education, and institutions, while consistently rejecting vote-buying whenever possible.

The Philippines should therefore reject the fatalistic notion that “flooding is simply our new normal.” Heavy rainfall may at times be unavoidable. Avoidable disaster is not.

The true “new normal” that should be pursued is not resignation to flooding, but rather competent and accountable governance, transparent and responsible infrastructure spending, science-based planning, effective drainage and watershed management, disciplined waste disposal, resilient communities, and voters who select public servants based on integrity, competence, and performance — not the price of a vote.

We cannot control the rain. However, we can control how intelligently, honestly, and responsibly we prepare for it. | NWI

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