Elections are held somewhere in the world almost every year, but the elections that are schedule or that have already been held in 2024, are probably the most consequential elections that many of us will see in our lifetimes in terms of the collective impact they have and will have on the state of representational government on planet Earth.
In June, Mexico elected its first female president after a chaotic electoral process that saw the assassination of several of the candidates. The election, though, marked the first successful challenge to Mexico’s patriarchal politics and could be the first credible challenge against the violent crime cartels that control much of the country outside the capital
In South Africa, the ANC, the ruling party since the end of apartheid in 1994, failed for the first time to get a majority nationwide, forcing it to either consider forming a coalition or national unity government with one or more of the opposition parties, or face a rerun of the elections in which they are unlikely to do any better. This stands to significantly change South Africa’s relationships with the rest of Africa and with the broader world, but in particular with countries like Russia, China, and the United States.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party won the election, but failed to achieve the majority needed to control parliament. His party got a total of 240 seats in the 543-seat parliament, so will need to have coalition partners in order to form a government. If unable to form a government that can improve living standards for India’s middle and lower classes, Modi could be facing a tough road ahead.
The most consequential election globally, though, will be the November presidential elections in my home country, the United States.
American voters will be asked to choose between two candidates for the highest office in the land. On one side is a man in his eighties who even some in his own party feel is too old – this is primarily the main objection to this candidate.
On the other ticket is a man who is now a convicted (but as yet unsentenced) felon who is also staring several other criminal indictments in the face and who has a track record of affinity for dictators, is a known liar and transactional, self-centered person, who happens to have almost total control of his party, which has, in the wake of his criminal conviction mounted concerted attacks on the justice system and doubled down on support for his false claims that the last election was stolen from him.
Frighteningly, current opinion polls have the latter candidate sometimes leading and sometimes behind by only a few points, leaving open the possibility that he could actually win the office by a squeaker, which would not only imperil democratic governance in the United States but would have repercussions globally.
For starters, as a convicted felon, he would technically not be allowed to travel to several countries, including some that are our close allies. He would also move to pull the United States out of many international alliances, including NATO, which would have a huge impact on security in Europe, and the list of possible negative consequences goes on and on.
The first candidate would be old, and that seems to bother a lot of people for no other reason than that he’s old. Go figure. No one can accuse humans, no matter what country they’re from, of being completely rational.
At any rate, these few elections point out why the year 2024 will be a year that future historians pore over with avid interest and probably a large dollop of disbelief. | NWI
