- CHERYL G. CRUZ
The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines has alerted the public of thin power supply this summer due to higher demand in 2023.
The power transmission operator said the Department of Energy forecasted a total peak demand of 13,125 megawatts (MW) for Luzon to occur towards the end of May, or an 8.35 percent increase from the actual 2022 peak load of 12,113MW, which occurred on May 12 last year.
For the Visayas, the peak demand occurred in September, and June for Mindanao. A 16.19 percent increase in demand is forecasted for the Visayas this year, while a 10.52 percent increase is expected for Mindanao.
Thin operating margins, or the power in excess of demand, from where the ancillary services, or the power used to manage and balance the grid are taken, are forecasted for this year, the NGCP statement said.
For the Luzon grid, these are forecasted from April to June due to the historically high demand during the summer months.
“(But) while base case projections show no occurrence of yellow or red alerts, there are weeks between March and April where operating margins are below required levels, due to higher demand and planned outages of plants,” it added.
A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, which is at 668MW each; and a red alert status when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.
The NGCP said it coordinates the preparation and submission to the DOE of an annual Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP), which is a consolidated preventive maintenance schedule of power plants, with consideration for the needed supply to meet the projected demand.
The 2023 GOMP was approved by the DOE on Dec. 27, it said, adding that in compliance with the DOE directive, no maintenance shutdowns were scheduled during the summer months.
“The NGCP coordinates with the generation and distribution sectors to optimize and rationalize maintenance schedules to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year,” the company said. “Unplanned shutdowns, which are outside of the GOMP, may still have a significant impact on the supply demand profile if, as in the past years, several power plants simultaneously shut down outside of its schedule,” it added.
While the GOMP is formulated to ensure adequacy of supply, especially during the critical months, there are instances of forced or unplanned outages of plants which may disrupt the normal operations of the grid and warrant the issuance of yellow or red alerts.
“As transmission service provider, the NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” it added.
It also appeals to policymakers to immediately explore “demand side management strategies” to mitigate any possible supply issues in the coming summer months, and alleviate possible power shortages. ||
