Editor’s Note:
We welcome our new columnist, Dr. Ric Patricio. An Agriculture graduate of Central Philippine University, he earned his MS in Agricultural Economics from UP Los Baños and his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota.
He is a former CPU professor, food security consultant in Southeast Asia, Colegio de La Castellana OIC president, and Water Mission (USA) country representative.
Dr. Patricio is a resident of La Castellana, Negros Occidental.
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It is both a privilege and an honor to serve as a regular columnist for this paper, made possible through the encouragement and trust of my fellow Centralian and good friend, Allen Del Carmen.
Paradigm Shift seeks to prepare readers for change—intellectually and morally—by offering insights that bridge the past, interpret the present, and envision a more just, resilient, and sustainable future.
Tubong-tubong is a Hiligaynon term deeply familiar to many adults in rural communities. It refers to the traditional practice of observing and recording the first 12 days of January to forecast the weather for the entire year.
My grandfather, a rice farmer, faithfully marked each of these days—placing a check mark if it rained and an “X” on the calendar if it did not. Each of the 12 days symbolized one month of the year, forming a simple yet meaningful weather calendar rooted in lived experience.
The 9th day of January represents September. When heavy rain falls on that day, elders would say it foretells abundant rainfall in September.
While this belief has no scientific basis, it has long carried weight among farmers—often described as the closest to God, for they look to the sky each day as their most immediate and trusted weather guide.
This folk wisdom helped them determine the timing of rice planting, the scheduling of a second crop, and the establishment of upland crops.
This age-old practice later inspired Mr. Boning Sonza, a fellow graduate of the Central Philippine University College of Agriculture, to institutionalize a rice-cropping pattern known as KABSAKA (Kabusogan sa Kaumhan – Salud Ulan).
First prototyped in Sta. Barbara, Iloilo, the system proved effective and was eventually embraced on a wide scale. Today, an estimated 95 percent of Ilonggo farmers practice this technology, making possible a sustainable Rice–Rice–Upland Crop production system.
In modern times, farmers are now better equipped through PAGASA to prepare for La Niña and El Niño, the two opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a large-scale climate pattern originating in the Pacific Ocean that strongly influences weather in Philippines. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal, bringing hotter conditions and below-normal rainfall. This often results in drought, water shortages, crop stress, and reduced yields, leading to delayed planting and lower rice and corn production.
Still, there is value in remembering where we came from. Let us begin marking our calendars once more.
Will January 4 and 5 signal dry months in April and May? Will January 6 to 12, representing June to December, bring abundant rains?
Perhaps it is time to revive—and reflect on—the age-old weather-reading practices of our forefathers, blending tradition with science as we face an increasingly uncertain climate. | NWI
