In the news and dominating the headlines recently, apart from the ongoing investigations being done in the august halls of Congress, is how US-China relations is being defined vis-à-vis the new leadership in the Philippines as well as the outcome of the forthcoming US presidential elections in November this year. As it is today, it would seem that US-China relations will spell the future of the Indo-Asia-Pacific Region.
In an analysis by Gen. Jose Almonte released by the Foundation for Economic Freedom recently, he opined that the global position of any nation, the Philippines included, will be determined by “what it believes is worth fighting for – its core values, way of life, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the like.”
Almonte’s statement was shared by officials of the Department of Foreign Affairs who also recently said that “the challenge in our part of the world is who will control the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, or more specifically, will China be allowed to control the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea.”
It is interesting to try to decipher the answers to at least a couple of questions, or if ever, to find out whether the questions may be answered in the first place. For one, as espoused by Almonte, he asked whether America will go to war over the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea dispute, or will China in turn go to war over jurisdiction of these waters.
According to Almonte, “If China controls these waters without fighting or firing a shot, but by merely using sand, water, and patience, the negative impact on America’s global leadership will be immense and irreparable.” He continued: “It will trigger a fundamental re-examination of the basic security and political assumptions of its allies, partners, and friends in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, and may even spill over beyond it.” Almonte called it as a “global game changer.”
Any student of world history would observe that America, by its sheer immense power, has the capacity to do practically anything in order to protect her interests worldwide. This was evidently seen in its efforts to take control over the state of affairs of a number of governments that are either beholden to them or where they may have interests, like military and naval bases. However, a hovering question can likewise be asked and ascertained: can the US win a war with China?
On the parallel question of whether China will wage a war against the US in relation to the claimed jurisdiction over the waters by countries that are stakeholders, including the Philippines, Almonte ventures his opinion. “China’s leadership has made clear to the world that the People’s Republic of China has indisputable sovereignty over the waters, within its so-called 9-dash line, and will defend it by any means possible,” he said.
It was also pointed out by Almonte that China has declared that it does not recognize the July 12, 2016 ruling made by the international arbitral tribunal in The Hague which, among others, invalidated its so-called nine-dash line. “China’s actions are consistent with its dream which aims to recover its dignity from the hundred years of humiliation inflicted by the western powers by working to the top of the global pecking order. The South China Sea/West Philippine Sea are an integral part of the China dream not only for their resources, but a secure nuclear submarine pen for a second-strike capability,” analyzed Almonte.
As a result of the talks, with the Philippines also trying to protect and defend its interests including what we believe we are entitled to, there is now a call for a need for an independent foreign policy. Now that President Bongbong Marcos has appointed former President Duterte as an ambassador or a conduit to the Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is reportedly a good friend of the former President, let’s keep tuned to developments. Being a retired military general himself, Almonte knows whereof he speaks, especially so that he also served as national security adviser of the Ramos administration.
Almonte expressed his observation that the administration has started to initiate a national reform program which promises to “create an enabling environment that will provide the context for the nation to become rich, prosperous, and strong.”
With the Marcos Jr. administration having taken off already, certain sectors have predicted that if this strategy becomes successful, “it will make this nation and the national leadership that made it possible great. It would lay the foundation for making the shaping impulse of the Filipino in terms of who we are, what we can be, what we can do, and what we can give.”
Lest he be accused of being too idealistic, Almonte chooses to be positive when he wrote: “These will embody the formation of a new Filipino personality, a new identity of an empowered Filipino enabled to build a strong and respected nation. We can become wealthy and strong, capable of building an independent foreign policy – a nation that is dependable and worthy as a partner rather than an unhelpful and dependent ally.”
All in all, Filipinos should not lose this opportunity – whatever obstacles and sacrifices it would entail – to make significant and meaningful gains for the country, which would redound to the welfare of the entire citizenry. – NWI
